No Excuses in 2010!

Not that we have ever made any before . . . I didn't hear one American dismiss our failures in 2006 as being okay because we had a tough group . . . but we really have no excuses. In May 2008, a full strength US squad played a full strength England squad at Wembley and the US boys lost 2-0 with a little bit of starstruck look in their eyes.

From American Fooligan

Since that match, the US team has found their steel. A 1-0 loss in a full-strength friendly in Spain and then a 0-0 draw with Argentina put the US on the Road to South Africa (it was actually in England that the kit below made it's debut).

From American Fooligan

Here is my quick and dirty gut reaction of who will advance. A detailed analysis will follow in the coming weeks, but here is what I have off the cuff (bold team wins group, italic advances):

Group A: South Africa, Mexico, Uruguay, France

Group B: Argentina, Nigeria, South Korea, Greece

Group C: England, USA, Algeria, Slovenia

Group D: Germany, Australia, Serbia, Ghana

Group E: Netherlands, Denmark, Japan, Cameroon

Group F: Italy, Paraguay, New Zealand, Slovakia

Group G: Brasil, North Korea, Cote d'Ivoire, Portugal

Group H: Spain, Switzerland, Honduras, Chile

For me, the only group that I really am not confident in picking any teams to advance is Group A. France, Uruguay and Mexico have all been very inconsistent. South Africa has been consistent . . . consistently terrible. But, the host country has always advanced and those vuvuzelas will be in full effect.

So, my round of 16 would look like this:

MEX vs. KOR - winner = MEX

USA vs. GHA - winner = USA

GER vs. ENG - winner = ENG

RSA vs. ARG - winner = ARG

NED vs. ITA - winner = NED

PAR vs. DEN - winner = DEN

BRA vs. HON - winner = BRA

ESP vs. CIV - winner = ESP

My Quarterfinals are a dream:

MEX vs. USA - winner = USA

BRA vs. NED - winner = NED (I might get killed and/or fired for that!)

ENG vs. ARG - winner = ENG (Beckham hits a free kick to win)

ESP vs. DEN - winner = ESP

Semifinals (a boy can dream, right?):

USA vs. NED - winner = USA

ENG vs. ESP - winner = ESP

Final:

USA vs. ESP - winner = didn't this match happen already!

God I love the World Cup!

From World Cup 2006

The Kookie Boyz in Germany!

My Command Center!

Live Feed

If anyone needs a live feed - here it is - http://atdhe.net/10745/watch-fifa-world-cup-2010-group-stage-draw

5 minutes!

Until we get to watch the entertainment! I am going to be more active on Twitter than here so follow me on Twitter - @rishisehgal

Draw Day: Does It Even Matter?

DRAW DAY!

From American Fooligan

It's finally here. This is the day where 2010 fever really sets in. The 32 team field is set and now we just have to see where the chips fall.

But, before the hoopla begins in about 3.5 hours, let's think about whether it even matters?

I do not think the draw is as important as many others will make it to be. My earlier posts on the probabilities were more about me trying to play with numbers. The group that the USA faced this past summer was about as tough as you could imagine (USA, Brasil, Italy and Egypt) and we made it through.

I think the worthier teams generally advance from the groups and after looking back on the 48 group stage games, I think the 16 teams that advance to the knockout round are the 16 teams generally playing the best soccer. Since the field expanded to 32 teams in 1998 (let's call this the Modern WC Era), we have never seen a team earn 6 points yet improbably be eliminated while a team advanced from another group with only 3 or 4 points. In fact, only twice in the Modern WC Era has a team that was eliminated in the first round had a positive goal differential (Spain in '98 and Portugal in '02).

A more important factor is what second round pairings would look like. I don't think France were better than Germany or Argentina in 2006 but we didn't have the chance to find out. I don't think Korea or Turkey were better than England in 2002, but both got further because England had to face champions Brasil in the quarterfinals.

All that said, I think the teams the USA is least likely to get a result against are Brasil, Spain, Holland, Germany, Cote d'Ivoire and France (if they can solve their midfield woes, Anelka is lethal and has a penchance for striking when the US is most vulnerable - at the beginning and end of games). Those teams have styles of play, levels of discipline and the personnel with which the US could have great difficulty coping.

Here in Rio, O Globo, the main newspaper disagrees with me and claims that the most difficult group for Brasil would include the US, Cote d'Ivoire and France. Wow, now that would be a true Group of Death. One mistake and you would almost certainly be put out. What that also means is that the Brasilians rate the US higher than Mexico! Take that Mexico!

I will be live blogging and twittering during the draw. If you're not already doing so, follow me @rishisehgal.

I can't wait! Which teams do you not want to face until later in the tournament?

World Cup 2010 Draw Revisted - Probabilities

Just today the South Africa 2010 Organizing Committee has confirmed what I predicted a couple weeks ago, with one exception. France is not seeded. Despite winning in 1998 and being a finalist in 2006, the SAOC and FIFA have not rewarded France with a seed. I wonder why. I don't really wonder - this was clearly the result of Thierry Henry's handiwork. (see what I did there?)

Here are the pots for the draw which will be held on Friday.

Pot 1 (Seeded Teams): South Africa, Brazil, England, Spain, Argentina, Netherlands, Italy, Germany (5 of 8 are previous winners).

Pot 2: (AFC, New Zealand and CONCACAF: North Korea, South Korea (...Marilyn Monroe - I am feeling humorous today), Australia, Japan, New Zealand, Honduras, Mexico, USA

Pot 3: (CAF and CONMEBOL): Ivory Coast, Cameroon, Nigeria, Algeria, Ghana, Uruguay, Paraguay, Chile

Pot 4: (non-seeded UEFA): France, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, Denmark, Greece, Serbia, Switzerland)

So, from my prior predictions, the only differences are that France and Holland traded places and the numbering of the groups. Both of those changes are irrelevant to my prior analysis as I still rate France as Group of Death worthy (GoD) team. So, why post again? Well, as someone pointed out to me on BigSoccer, it would be extremely unlikely that the hosts are placed in a GoD. The host country has made it to the second round in every single World Cup. If I were a betting man . . . guess what I would bet on right now?

Okay, so assuming South Africa is not capable of being placed in a GoD, that means there is 7/8 chance that a Pot 1 team will contribute to a GoD.

Out of Pot 2, I rate the US.

Out of Pot 3, I rate Ivory Coast, Ghana and Paraguay as GoD teams. (3/8)

Out of Pot 4, I rate France, Denmark and Portugal as GoD teams. (3/8)

Now, let's reexamine what exactly constitutes a GoD. Is it that every team should have a reasonable shot at advancing? Or that 3/4 of the 4 would be feared. I think it's the latter.

Let's look at the GoDs for the last 3 World Cups. I wanted to include 1994 as well, but that tournament only had 24 teams so 3 teams could advance from any group - and the GoD there was Ireland, Italy, Mexico and Norway - and Ireland, Mexico and Italy actually advanced.

In 1998: Nigeria, Spain, Paraguay and Bulgaria. Nigeria and Bulgaria were stars in 1994 and Spain is Spain. Paraguay were not highly rated in 1998 having failed to qualify for either 1990 or 1994.

In 2002: England, Argentina, Sweden and Nigeria. Here, England, Argentina and Sweden were all highly rated. Nigeria were not rated so highly as the stars that carried them to the second round in 1994 and 1998 had aged by this point. In fact, they were pretty fruitless on the pitch as well, scoring a lone goal.

In 2006, we had: USA, Czech Republic, Italy and Ghana (USA, Czech and Italy were all top 15 teams per FIFA rankings) and Ghana was in its first world cup. Out of the 64 teams that made the second round in the four prior world cups, only 3 were debutants (Senegal '02, Saudia Arabia '94 and Costa Rica '90). In 2006, the group with Argentina, Ivory Coast, Serbia and Netherlands was also considered a GoD by some, but we had 2 debutants in that group - debutants are very unlikely to advance (again, only 3/64 teams that qualified for the 2nd round between 1990 and 2002 were debutants).

So, let's say a GoD is established if there are 3 teams that can be considered reasonably likely to advance to the second round.

I decided to be unlazy and have attempted to calculate this both if we assume the US is a GoD team and if the US is considered the weak team. In the case of the latter - we'll call that LEG (learning experience group). For clarity - I've included LEGs into the God calculations.

Anyway - if we draw a CONMEBOL team from Pot 1, then we have a 0.09% chance of drawing into a LEG and a 3.0% chance of drawing into a traditional GoD. So there is a 3.9% chance of at least a GoD.

If we draw a UEFA team from Pot 1, we have an 2.2% chance of drawing into a LEG and a 7.5% chance of drawing into a traditional GoD. So there is 9.7% chance of at least a GoD.

If we draw South Africa, then we have 0 chance of getting a GoD - based on the warm ball theory.

So, we have a 13.6% chance of being drawn into a Group of Death.

What does this all mean? Very little until Friday. That's the beauty of the game and these tournaments. No matter who we draw, we will need to win. And, if our group is like the Confederations Cup, maybe we just have to win once. (by the by, since 1990, the US has only picked up 9 of a possible 45 points in group stage games. And people wonder why we haven't been seeded).

Let´s hope we draw Argentina or South Africa.

APOLOGIES IF YOU READ THIS EARLIER - I UPDATED THE MATH.

Why I do not cook down here:

This slop pile disappears for about 45 mins a week then magestically
reappears. To borrow an ochocincoism: child please! Smh

Food For Thought

Those of you who know me well know that generally, when I wake up, my most pressing concern is trying to figure out what I am going to eat that day. This started about 5 years ago after I took a look in the mirror and was not happy with what I saw. Actually, my roommate and good buddy Vineet did me a favor and put a not so flattering picture of me on our fridge. It was a Sunday and I was carrying out my then routine, which was dominated by an NFL Sunday Ticket subscription, of starting the day off (at 11:00 am) with a fight against my resultant hangover from the prior night's evils. I poured myself a giant bowl of raisin bran and as I turned to the fridge to hydrate the flakes with some cold milk Sam's Adams Winter Lager (seriously folks, try it, it is amazing on every level), I noticed the photo on an otherwise barren fridge. I wish that I could reproduce that picture here. Sadly, it is long lost (the following is circa December 2002 but I think it serves the intended effect):



I made an instant declaration: that day would be the absolute last day that I would begin with beeraisin bran, followed by watching the 1:00 games, followed by a trip to Publix to grab an overstuffed hoagie, followed by the 4:00 games, followed by a trip to Chipotle/front door to collect some nasty Manny & Olga's pizza/kebab palace, followed by Sunday Night Football, followed by something disgusting, followed by TV.

Yeah, there is no way to just quit anything that delicious cold turkey (especially when there is cold turkey in the Publix hoagies). So, I began my journey to reduce my weight to a respectable level, and to get my fat ass in shape. I started working out on the regs and I gradually began to watch my diet. I even started reading about nutrition (okay, I just read the South Beach Diet) and I realized that if I was serious, I could no longer fill my body with crap. Thus began my problem of trying to figure out what I was going to eat each day. Since then, I have done a pretty good job of keeping myself in respectable condition, especially considering my affinity for the drink and my affinity for burgers - let's face it, they are the real NYC specialty.

There have definitely been a couple periods where I have recessed to old habits though - one troubled winter in NYC and this past summer leap to mind.

Okay - Where the hell am I going with this?

Succumbing to a bout of insomnia the other day, I watched a video essay (I refuse to call it a "documentary" as it definitely had a thesis) on the food supply and distribution network in the United States called "Food, Inc." It basically was watching my brain on film. There are several different themes covered in the essay, but the basic thesis is that the food supply and distribution networks in the US have been overrun by corporate interests and that corporate bottom lines have not been good for any of (i) human waistlines, (ii) human health, (iii) the environment, (iv) animals or (v) everyday farmers. I cannot tell you how much this essay resonated with my admittedly unresearched core beliefs about food.



My first trip to a grocery store in Brazil yielded the following immediate reactions: (i) Amazing! This looks exactly like a grocery store in the US - they have everything (I was even able to buy a towel there!) and (ii) Holy Shit! This crap is expensive. What I was looking at was a jar of salsa. It cost R$23 (US$13,50). I began to look at other staple foods and found them similarly expensive. I started to realize that my relief that the grocery store was better equipped than the franco-relics found in Madrid was quickly being replaced with dismay at the costs. Then I realized - everything I was looking at was processed food. I quickly high-tailed it to the produce section. Halleluja, I found the cheapness the Indian in me was looking for. I grabbed some delicious looking fruits and vegetables and made off for the proteins. OMG! Look at the seafood selection! AMAZING! The Meats were even more so. And everything fresh was so damn cheap! This is exactly the opposite of the United States where processed foods are cheap (because they are heavily subsidized) and fresh foods are expensive.


While Food, Inc. makes a heavy-handed point of criticizing mass Agri-business in the US, it does raise some valid points. Has anyone ever considered if it is actually a good thing to stuff cattle and farm-raised salmon with corn? Has anyone ever considered whether it is a good thing to stuff salmon into mud baths? Can eating chicken that comes from a modern, closed-in chicken house dangerous? What about e-coli? Who is in charge of oversight? And Most Importantly - WHY THE FUCK DO WE NOT CARE ABOUT OUR FOOD SUPPLY?

My guess to the last question is that it is certainly because our food is so plentiful and cheap. And because we have so little information about what is actually in it. One of the themes in the essay is that the Food Business has been so successful in fighting labeling requirements that people are simply incapable of knowing what they put in their bodies. I totally agree. Why withhold information? Oh, because "consumer will be too frightened if we have to put labels on the food." JESUS, frightend of what? You pompous bitch, provide the info and if the consumer doesn't like your product, then go sod off. That is what capitalism is all about right? Consumer Choice? Not out version of Capitalism - our version is all about protecting interests so that we can grow bloated systems that are doomed to fail (see, e.g. the American Auto Industry and the American Banking Industry).

For me, Food, Inc. is important because it highlights another way in which we fail to use democracy for our own benefit. We let tyrants grab the power and then let them control us by lining their pockets with cash while filling our pockets with shit. The answer is not to beg the government (we are the government in America, remember?) to put in place new policies (maybe adjust some current policies or remove certain ones), but to beat the corporations (Monsanto, Tyson, Smithfield & Perdue) at their own game. We need to show our love to farmer's and green markets and demand more transparency in the food production world. Why should there not be free viewing platforms for the public to view slaughterhouses at work (think glass-walled observation decks). Sure, it could make people a little queasy, but our current food supply makes me queasy.

Anyway, since being here and eating almost entirely only fresh foods, I have felt myself become healthier and happier. I am back on track to regain my respectable body weight and despite the fact that I am exercising on the regs again, I really think the food quality is playing a huge role.

So, since tomorrow is Thanksgiving, maybe now is the time to start thinking about what kind of food we spend our dollars on. One thing I know that I am thankful for this year has been the opportunity to spend time in three very different countries and cultures and to be able to compare and contrast them. There is no doubt in my mind that this continues to be the most educational year of my life.

Feliz Dia de Ação Everybody! (Now what the heck am I going to eat for dinner . . .)

http://www.foodincmovie.com/

Maracanã 5.0 and how I failed the USA

Last night was one of the most magical football environments I've ever experienced. 92,000 people packed into Maracanã to see the surging Flamengo take on Goiás in the third to last match of the 2009 Campeanato Brasileiro. Marcel, Gabor and I headed out on the subway mighty early to try and score some tickets from a tout as the match had long been sold out. Marcel and Gabor are both German, and if you're not familiar, Germans do not like to deal with touts. When I had an extra ticket to the Germany-Italy semi-final of the 2006 World Cup, I thought I'd be able to sell it a premium and secure a booty of bier tokens. Not. To. Be. Nobody would pay me more than face value (150 euros). When someone offered me 150 euros plus a ticket to the France-Portugal match, I gobbled it up faster than you can say Fahrvergnügen.

Anyway, as soon as we got off the subway, the swarms of Mengão fans around us went batty as Botafogo, one of Flamengo's inter-city rivals, took a lead against São Paulo. Going into the day, São Paulo led Flamengo by 2 points so a São Paulo loss coupled with a Flamengo win would see Flamengo go top with just 2 matches left. This was actually my first time arriving at Maracanã station as all other times I've been, the subway station has been closed for renovations. The view when you arrive is stunning:

From Drop Box

The immediate jubilation was short-lived as São Paulo quickly leveled. We found the touts easily enough and quickly parted with R$75 each to secure seats in the Arquibancada - the upper band of the stadium where the Torcedores (hard core supporters) are. We arrived about 1.5 hours early and with little refreshment and protection from the shade, our sweat glands were being put to the test. We quickly went Mike Mick on the situation and shed our shirts.

From Drop Box

(notice Barack Obama was there as well)

Getting there early turned out to be a great idea as the score reports coming in from the Botafogo-São Paulo match kept everyone entertained. São Paulo took the lead and then Botafogo duly levelled before Jóbson sent both the Engenhão and the Maracanã into complete pandemonium by knocking in a winner for Botafogo.

A number of the Torcidas (fan groups) of Flamengo organized the following tifo-mosaic display before the match. In a word, incredible:



The match itself was extremely frustrating as Flamengo were without key attacking midfielder, Claudio Maldonado, a Chilean international injured in a friendly with Slovakia last week. This left Flamengo to pursue a tired and predictable attack by driving down the wings and then forcing a cross to the double-teamed Adriano. Despite this, Fla managed a few quality chances and easily could have scored twice, but alas, frustration.

We had to make our best impression of lemmings as we made for the exits with the other 91,997 fans in attendance. An odd tradition is that members of the Raça, one of the torcidas, pretend that they in Pamplona and charge through the crowd like a pack of bulls to get to the exit quicker. Looks pretty hazardous on its face, but people get out of the way and seem to even have a laugh about it. I may join next time.

After the match, we met up with Sebastian and headed over to Baixo Tijuca for a massive chopp. This is where I embarrassed the USA. After several warm-up rounds, some Germans got to talking about how they are the best drinkers. Well, the Brazilians amongst us and of course the Americans took issue (there were two chicks who are studying abroad - one from the U and one from New Mexico). We went simple and kept it at a chugging race. In the first contest, I finished first or second to Pedro, one of the Brazilians. It was too close to call. In the second contest, another too close to call race between me and a Brazilian, this time Ben. In the final, the round of champions if you will, I was decidedly beaten by Ben. The Germans were nowhere to be found. Apologies USA, please let me back in. I will do better. I promise.

Here are some more photos:

World Cup 2010 Draw Anticipation

ADVICE: PRINT THIS FOR SHITTERATURE.

So, since I like soccer-football-fútbol-futebol, I thought I'd drop something to think about as World Cup qualifying comes to a close today. In a few hours, the field of 32 will be set. We are just waiting on France/Ireland (France carries a 1-0 lead to Paris) - Portugal/Bosnia (Portugal leads 1-0 but must play away) - Greece/Ukraine (0-0 with a match in Ukraine) - Russia/Slovenia (Russia leads 2-1 but must now defend away in Slovenia) - Uruguay/Costa Rica (URU defends a 1-0 lead in Montevideo) and probably what will be the most heated - Egypt/Algeria in a winner-take-all tiebreaker on neutral ground in Khartoum.

I am predicting that tomorrow's match's will have little impact on the draw which will take place on December 4. Why? Because only 1 seed is at stake and I am confident that Uruguay will not lose to the Costa Ricans, who have been in a free fall, going 1-1-4 since August. However, as you will see below, the Uruguay/Costa Rica match is the most important, and conveniently enough, will the last played.

EVERYTHING BELOW RELIES ON A SET OF ASSUMPTIONS:

1) FIFA does not change the past seeding criteria
2) NO 2 teams from the same confederation, except UEFA teams, will be drawn together (i.e. Brazil will not be grouped with Paraguay, Chile or possibly Uruguay and South Africa will not draw another CAF team).


So, the following picture is courtesy of Marca, the Spanish sports daily that loves to sensationalize everything. They are already fearing that Spain will draw Holland, the Ivory Coast and the US - and the US is the only team to defeat Spain in the last 3 years.

From American Fooligan

Pot 1 is set with the question of France. If Ireland knock off France, then Holland will be seeded and Ireland will be in Pot 2.

Pot 2 is set pending the results of the qualifiers tomorrow, but the places are locked with the exception of Holland/France.

Pot 3 and 4. Here is where things get interesting. I think the unseeded CAF teams will be grouped with the CONMEBOL teams as it will be easier to control for Assumption #2 above. Because we know that South Africa will be in Group A, FIFA can just pick from the CONMEBOL teams during the first round. Then, after Brazil and Argentina are assigned groups, FIFA can pick from the African teams.

The tricky part comes down to the Uruguay/Costa Rica match. If Costa Rica wins, then, in order to avoid violating Assumption #2 (and assuming there is no further re-jiggering wanted), we obviously can't have Costa Rica in Pot 3 if all other CONCACAF teams go to Pot 4.

What to do then if Costa Rica advances? Simple, move New Zealand to Pot 3 and Pot 4 is a combination of AFC and CONCACAF Teams.

Confused yet? Revert back to the chart.

What does this all mean for the Stars and Stripes? Well, if my Assumptions hold true (and they will - no two non-UEFA teams from the same Confederation have been grouped together since 1970 when hosts Mexico were grouped with minnows El Salvador):


If Uruguay win, we know a few things to be true:
a) No CONCACAF team will be grouped with an AFC team
b) South Africa will face at least one UEFA team and one CONMEBOL team
c) Brazil and Argentina will be grouped with one UEFA team and one CAF team.

Then here is how the rest computes:

The US (and each team in pot 4 for that matter) would have a 37.5% chance of drawing a Mixed group (one team from each of CAF, UEFA and CONMEBOL), a 37.5% chance of drawing a UEFA/CAF group (two UEFA teams and a CAF team) and a 25% chance of drawing a UEFA/CON group (two UEFA teams and a CONMEBOL team).

If Costa Rica win, then things get much more complicated because if my Assumptions are correct and Pot 3 consists of the 5 unseeded CAF teams, New Zealand, Paraguay and Chile, then there are more ways to avoid violating Assumption #2. For instance, South Africa would draw from a pot including New Zealand, Chile and Paraguay - while Brazil and Argentina would potentially draw from pots including New Zealand and the 5 unseeded CAF teams. It gets complicated because there will be more manipulating of the pots (Unless South Africa draw NZ and Brazil and Argentina headline Groups B & C or vice versa).

I am not a math major so I am not even going to attempt to try and figure out those odds.

But, I think it is a safe bet that Uruguay will hold serve at home tomorrow and then we will see these chances for the US:

37.5% chance for a CAF/UEFA/CONMEBOL group

37.5% chance for a UEFA/UEFA/CAF group

25% chance for a UEFA/UEFA/CONMEBOL group


SO, WHAT ABOUT THE GROUP OF DEATH?


CAUTION: SKETCHY MATH AHEAD. DO NOT PROCEED UNLESS YOU ARE WILLING TO ACCEPT THAT I WROTE THIS AT 2 AM AND AM NOT CONFIDENT IN THE CALCULATIONS. BUT I DIGRESS, HALF OF FOOTBALL IS TALKING OUT THE ASS . . .

By my understanding of probability and statistics, going back a full 11 years here since I scored well enough on the AP exam to avoid taking it in college, this is a question of compound probability because we are trying to calculate the probability that a series of random events will occur. The probabilities in Pot 3 change though because depending on which Pot 1 team we are dealing with, they are drawing from a different pool in Pot 3 (back to Assumption #2).

The Group of death is the phenomenon that there is usually one group that is so difficult that each team in it would be a sentimental favorite to advance to the next round. The first step in determining this probability is rating what would be GOD eligible teams in the first 3 pots. Let's call these "GOD" teams.

For simplicity's sake, let's assume both France and Uruguay do the business tomorrow.

I think it is safe to say that all the seeded teams should be considered GOD teams (since 1998, only 3 of 24 seeded teams failed to advance).

Out of Pot 2, I rate Holland/Ireland, Portugal, Russia and Denmark as GOD teams. Out of Pot 3, I rate Ivory Coast, Ghana and Paraguay as GOD teams. As you can probably guess - there is no certainty that a Group of Death even forms.

So, this means there is a 50% chance that any Pot 1 team will draw a GOD team in pot 2. It gets a little trickier for Pot 3 because per Assumption #2, South Africa will only be drawing from CONMEBOL teams and Brazil & Argentina will only be drawing from CAF teams. So from Pot 3, South Africa has a 33% chance of drawing a GOD team, Brazil and Argentina each have a 40% chance of drawing a GOD team and the UEFA seeds each have a 60% chance of drawing a GOD team. (those odds will dynamically adjust as the draw takes place of course and one team draws a GOD team or does not . . . think of it like the change in odds that occurs after the flop, turn and river in poker).

For Pot 4, I think only 6 of the 8 teams will have a chance at making the Second Round - Japan, North Korea, South Korea, Australia, USA and Mexico. I do not rate Honduras or New Zealand very highly here. So we have 6 GOD teams. So a 75% probability of drawing a GOD team from Pot 4.

So, taking into account the above, there is a 49.975% chance that a Group of Death forms.

Now, we have the last step of calculating the USA's odds of drawing that Group - 1/8 = 12.5%

One more compound probability calculation = a 6.23% chance of drawing the Group of Death.

Okay, piss all over me now. Let's face it - any group we are in will be tough. It will take all 23 men on the squad and we will have to fight tooth and nail for every half-chance on goal.

Boy, playing with numbers is fun. Please leave some comments with your thoughts - especially concerning my math if it is way off somewhere. I cannot tell you how entertaining this was for me.